NEW YORK, March 28, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — The global economy panel on the first day of Quinnipiac University’s ninth annual Global Asset Management Education (G.A.M.E.) Forum in New York recognized great uncertainty in world market investments, but also great opportunities.
Joseph Davis, global chief economist at Vanguard, described the world economy as “down but not out.” He said the likelihood of a worldwide recession is approximately 30 percent. “We see cyclical threats, but a weathering of the storm,” he said. “We think, for instance, that the current Chinese economy is worse than expected and reported. And low productivity is also an issue.”
Frances Donald, head of macroeconomic strategy at Manulife Asset Management, also cautioned about low productivity. For entry-level jobs at companies such as McDonald’s, she said, it can be hard to recruit new employees.
Donald also cited e-commerce, which can make it hard for companies to raise prices if consumers can find products cheaper elsewhere. She said the likelihood of a global recession is slightly higher, 35 percent.
Tom Keene, editor at large for Bloomberg News, urged the business students in attendance to study history and cited useful books. “If you don’t know the history of the global economy, you can’t do this,” he said. “It’s all linked together, and you have to synthesize it.”
John Silvia, former managing director and chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities, agreed that studying precedents is important. He noted that the recession of 2008 happened before many of the current traders were on the floor. The issues change, he said, citing Y2K as a major worry for Wall Street around 2000. A concern today is finding employment for the world’s Rust Belt workers, whose industrial job skills have become obsolete. Donald said “reskilling” could put some of those people back to work.
The current administration’s tariffs found little support on the panel. Davis said, however, that a trade deal with China is likely, in part because the impact of tariffs on China is greater than is generally known, which gives the country an incentive to conclude a deal.
The G.A.M.E. conference drew 1,500 participants from 154 colleges, 50 countries and 48 states.
SOURCE Quinnipiac University